Decline in the west: The corona wave is sweeping to the east

For a long time, the corona incidences in the east remain significantly lower than in the rest of Germany. But now the number of cases is increasing there, in some cases significantly, while it is falling in the west.

When the new corona infections in the west of the Federal Republic of Germany shot up in July and August, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia, they rose only very slowly in the eastern federal states. But the trend has now reversed. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse, things are going steeply downhill, while the incidences in the east continue to rise.

Bremen currently still has the highest incidence of all federal states with around 109 new infections, but six days ago it was still over 120. There is also a slight downward trend in Bavaria, where the number of cases fell from just under 95 to around 88 over the same period .

Thuringia is growing particularly quickly

Thuringia is now in third place with around 83 new infections and the curve continues to rise significantly. The situation is similar at a lower level in Saxony, which now has the fifth highest value of the 16 federal states with an incidence of 74.

With around 78 new infections, Baden-W├╝rttemberg still has the fourth highest incidence, but in mid-September it was already over 100. In Hesse, the value has halved from 120 to 60 since September 6, and in Hamburg it fell from 97 to 57 Rhineland-Palatinate from 113 to 51.

In Lower Saxony the incidence fell from 81 to 43, in Saarland from 95 to 40, in Schleswig-Holstein from 52 to 28. Berlin also recorded a decrease from 92 to 78, although the incidence there was already 72 on September 26th lower.

The lowest case numbers in the east are in Saxony-Anhalt, where they have only increased from 33 to 44 since mid-September. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania also still has a comparatively low value at 47, but on September 22 it was only 28. Brandenburg is tied, although the incidence there has been moving sideways since mid-September.

Top hotspots in Bremen and Bavaria

The east is catching up, but most of the corona hotspots are still in the west. The district with the highest 7-day incidence is Bremerhaven with almost 254 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. The following three districts are located in Bavaria: Traunstein with 248.5, the Berchtesgadener Land with 232 and the district of Rosenheim with 221.

Together with Cham (169), the city of Rosenheim (163) and Miesbach (154) are six of the top 10 hotspots in the Free State. With Pforzheim (196), the Schwarzwald-Baar district (167) and Heilbronn (155), three of the ten districts with the highest incidences are also in Baden-W├╝rttemberg.

But a clear eastward trend can also be seen in the hotspots. Because there are more districts there, the incidences of which are rising steeply than in the west. This is happening particularly rapidly in the Thuringian Unstrut-Hainich district. He is currently in 11th place with 145.5 new infections; on August 31, there were still two cases. The situation is similar in Greiz (14 / Thuringia), whose 7-day incidence increased from 7 to 139 over the same period.

Vaccination quotas make a big difference

But a look at the overall incidence is not enough to assess the consequences of the increase. Because high case numbers are especially a problem when people who become seriously ill with Covid-19 become infected.

In the meantime, these are by no means just the over 80-year-olds. Almost a quarter (23.9 percent) of Covid 19 patients in German intensive care units are currently between 50 and 59 years old, the largest proportion (24.4 percent) are 70 to 79 year olds.

Over 80-year-olds only account for 15.3 and 11.2 percent of the cases there. After all, 13.8 percent of corona intensive care patients are between 40 and 49 years old, the proportion of 30-39 year olds is 8.1 percent. Only 2.3 percent are between 18 and 29 years old, minors make up only 1 percent.

Much of the development is due to the fact that the vast majority of adults have been vaccinated. Possibly have already been vaccinated up to 80 percent and 85 percent have at least one dose in their upper arm. According to official RKI statistics At least 85 percent of those over 80 are fully vaccinated, but only 70.8 percent of 18 to 59 year olds.

The regional differences are sometimes very large. Saxony has the worst vaccination rates with 77.8 and 55.5, followed by Brandenburg (79.9 / 61.2 percent), Thuringia (80.9 / 59.5 percent) and Bavaria (82.2 / 68.4) .

East copes with high incidences worse. More on the subject

Nationwide, at least 90 percent of Covid 19 patients in intensive care are unvaccinated. In Saxony was loud MDR Until September 20, not a single vaccinated person was in an intensive care unit, 99 percent of all hospitalizations were unvaccinated.

Corresponding to the lower vaccination rates, high incidences in the east have more serious consequences, especially when many elderly people are also affected. In Thuringia, for example, the number of corona intensive care patients has already risen from 16 to 26 in the past week, in Saxony from 37 to 74. In Bavaria, on the other hand, the situation has eased somewhat, where the number of intensively cared for corona cases fell from 257 on 242.

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