RTL / ntv trend barometer: Union stagnates at a weak 20 percent

The SPD’s lead over the Union is solidifying: Once again, the Social Democrats are six percentage points ahead of the CDU and CSU in the RTL / ntv trend barometer. The fact that Armin Laschet is still chairman of the CDU is met with little understanding among those entitled to vote.

Even two weeks after the federal election, the proportion of those who were eligible to vote who would vote for the Union remains lower than in the federal election on September 26th: According to the current RTL / ntv trend barometer, the Union would continue to vote 20 percent. As in the election, the SPD has 26 percent. As in the previous week, the Greens and FDP can count on 16 and 14 percent respectively. The left comes to 5 percent, the AfD to 9 percent and the other parties to 10 percent.

According to many eligible voters, the fact that the Union will continue to weaken after the election is primarily due to its candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet. Even after the election, 51 percent of all eligible voters as well as 57 percent of the CDU and 83 percent of the CSU supporters hold him responsible for the bad image of the Union and the low level of trust that the Union has among voters.

48 percent of all eligible voters, but only 26 percent of the CDU and 33 percent of the CSU supporters, believe that general dissatisfaction with the Union and its long term in office is a reason for the poor appearance. 40 percent of all eligible voters and 23 percent of the supporters of the CDU or the CSU believe that there is a general desire for a change of policy.

Respondent: It was the candidate

Only 19 percent of those surveyed and 7 percent of supporters of the CDU and CSU believe that the Union’s program could be to blame for the poor confidence of the voters. A total of 14 percent of the eligible voters surveyed see CSU boss Markus Söder as a reason for the loss of trust. In the case of the CDU voters, it is even slightly less at 10 percent. Markus Söder’s criticism of Armin Laschet’s election campaign also considers 56 percent of all eligible voters as well as 63 percent of the CDU and 81 percent of the CSU voters to be justified.

While Armin Laschet would like to moderate the process of realigning the CDU’s personnel, 66 percent of those questioned would consider it right if Laschet resigned from his position as CDU chairman immediately. Only 24 percent of all eligible voters and only 40 percent of the CDU and 23 percent of the CSU supporters think it is right that he wants to remain in office for the time being.

The respondents do not have a clear favorite for Laschet’s successor in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus: 27 percent of all eligible voters consider Norbert Röttgen, 19 percent Friedrich Merz and 10 percent Jens Spahn to be suitable to become the next CDU chairman. 44 percent consider none of the three to be a suitable successor for Laschet.

With Söder more approval for Jamaica

With a candidate for Chancellor Markus Söder, 59 percent of all eligible voters, 79 percent of the CDU and 90 percent of the CSU supporters believe that the Union would have received a better result than with Armin Laschet. If the respondents could choose between Olaf Scholz and Markus Söder, 33 percent would choose Söder and 37 percent Scholz.

55 percent of those eligible to vote – another two percentage points more than in the previous week – would personally prefer a traffic light coalition. 20 percent would support a Jamaica, 11 percent a grand coalition of the Union and the SPD. Of the supporters of the Greens, 91 percent want a traffic light coalition, only 4 percent a Jamaica coalition. Of the supporters of the FDP, 37 percent would like a traffic light coalition, 40 percent a Jamaica coalition.

If Markus Söder were to become Chancellor of a Jamaica coalition, the proportion of supporters of a traffic light coalition would drop to 37 percent. 28 percent would then be for a Jamaica coalition, 13 percent for a grand coalition.